The Special Tribunal for Lebanon -- the International Court set up in May 2007
by the UN Security Council to investigate the February 2005 assassination of
former Lebanese premier Rafiq Hariri and 22 others -- will soon deliver its
findings. Expectations are running high that the tribunal will indict Hezballah,
Syria and heads of Lebanon's intelligence agencies.
Reports and movements
on the ground in Lebanon indicate that if the tribunal does indict Hezballah,
then Hezballah will stage a coup or a policy-reversing blitzkeig similar to the
one it staged in
Beirut in
May 2008 in which it laid siege to the homes of Sunni leader Saad Hariri
(son of the assassinated Rafiq Hariri) and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, and won,
through force of arms, the right to share power and veto government decisions.
"What is beyond doubt,"
writes
Zvi Mazel in the Jerusalem Post, "is that both Hizbullah and Syria will do
all they can to prevent the court from fulfilling its mandate. If the court does
not desist one way or another, fighting will probably erupt in
Lebanon."
Tensions soar
If
the Special Tribunal on Lebanon (STL) rules, as is expected, that Hezballah,
Syria and the heads of Lebanese intelligence agencies are complicit in the
assassination of Rafiq Hariri, then the issue of Hezballah's arms would most
certainly be back on the table.
As Elias Youssef
Bejjani reports, Hezballah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has vowed not to
abide by the court's rulings, having tagged the tribunal an Israeli-American
conspiracy and a tool of treason against Lebanon established on the fabrications
of false witnesses in a bid to have the "resistance" cornered, framed,
dismantled and disarmed. Nasrallah, determined to prevent any ruling that could
lead to calls for Hezballah's disarmament, is threatening violence.
Once
again, Lebanon teeters on the verge of civil war. The pressure has been such
that Prime Minister Saad Hariri has been forced to retreat. Realistically, what
else can Hariri do? For PM Hariri has no means to fight Hezballah, especially
now the US has no influence in the region, Iran is ascendant, and Saudi Arabia
(Hariri's natural ally) is more interested in improving ties with Sunni-majority
Arab Syria in the vain hope that it can lure Syria out of Iran's
Shi'ite-majority Persian embrace.
Even after his March 14 Alliance won
the June 2009 elections, Hariri was forced to accommodate Hezballah by inviting
them into a government of national unity. Thus Hezballah secured through terror,
not only a share of power and the right to veto parliament, but control of the
foreign affairs, health, communications, energy and industry portfolios as
well.
The situation has not changed. In the absence of meaningful
international support (i.e. something other than mere words), Lebanon's national
security will remain dependent upon perpetual accommodation and appeasement of
Hezballah.
In September, Syria's President Bashir summonsed PM Hariri to
meet with him in Damascus. Upon his return, Hariri echoed the sentiments of
Hezballah's Nasrallah and cast suspicions on the ability of the STL to make a
right judgement. Hariri suggested that the tribunal had been deceived and that
this had led to a deterioration of relations between Lebanon and Syria. Next
month Hariri will play host Iranian President Ahmadinejad. Clearly, to a
threatened man without means of resistance, the gravitational pull of the
Iranian axis is irresistible.
Sami Gemayel, a Maronite Christian, is the
son of former president Amin Gemayel, brother of assassinated MP Pierre Gemayel,
and nephew of assassinated former president-elect Bachir Gemayel. As a strong
Lebanese nationalist, he is a staunch critic of Hezballah. Consequently, Gemayel
objected vehemently to PM Hariri's u-turn on the STL, going on to accuse
Hezballah of collaborating against Lebanon's interests. Nasrallah responded by
posting a grim threat on Hezballah's website -- the Islamic Resistance Forum --
in which he denounced the Christian leader as an Israeli spy and called for
his
"crucifixion
on a pole in the Pride and Dignity Square in Beirut".
Hezballah's Christian allies
At the time
of the 2005 elections, around 70 percent of Lebanon's Christians supported the
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of General (retired) Michel Aoun. On 6 February
2006, Aoun signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" (MOU) with Hezballah leader
Hassan Nasrallah in a ceremony in Mar Mikhail Church, just a few blocks from
Hezballah's headquarters in Beirut's southern suburbs. Doubtless Hezballah was
seeking to secure Christian allies who could support their causes in parliament.
Nasrallah may have even been betting that the March 8 opposition could ride to
power on the FPM's coat-tails. Meanwhile, the highly ambitious Aoun had his eyes
on the presidency (reserved for a Christian) and was doubtless betting (as were
many Christians) he could secure political power, liberty and security for
Christians through a pact/covenant with the toughest boys on the
block.
Back in June 2006, after I wrote a piece entitled
"Lebanon
Falls" in which I was critical of Hezballah's May 2008 violent seizure of
Beirut, I was chided by some well known Lebanese evangelicals who accused me of
misrepresenting Hezballah. After commenting that they and virtually all Lebanese
Christians shared Hezballah's anti-Israel stance, they insisted that Hezballah
was most definitely
not
anti-Semitic,
not anti-Christian, and
not a terrorist
organisation. On the contrary, they told me, Hezballah was in fact an ally in
the quest for religious liberty, political power and equality, citing the MOU as
"proof".
I said at the time, and still maintain today, that this alliance
with Hezballah will be for Christians nothing other than a
"covenant with death" (Isaiah
28:15-22).
By the time of the June 2009 elections, suspicion was
simmering throughout the Christian heartland north of Beirut where Hezballah's
establishment of military outposts was causing alarm. Consequently, a
significant number of Christians deserted Aoun on polling day, and Aoun could
not deliver to Hezballah the numbers he had projected.
Today, reports and
movements on the ground suggest that Hezballah is preparing to stage a coup and
co-opt its Christian allies to fight its Christian opponents.
Elias Youssef
Bejjani reports: "Well-informed Saudi sources have confirmed to the
'Beirut
Observer' that . . . information became available to them indicating that an
imminent Hezbollah coup is in on the horizon." According to reports, Hezballah's
strategy will be similar to that enacted in the May 2008 blitzkrieg, in that
militants will simultaneously take control of roads, media and state
institutions, and besiege the homes of government officials, effectively placing
them under house arrest until they are subdued.
(Of course there will be
no need to besiege Walid Jumblatt's home this time, as he switched sides after
the June 2009 election in order to align himself with the ascendant force. For
along with the fact that Hezballah has proved itself to be the strongest
military force in the country, despite losing the election 70 to 58 seats, the
Hezballah-led March 8 opposition did win 55 percent of the vote.
See:
How will
Jumblatt’s split affect March 14?
By Maya Khourchid, NOW Lebanon, 6
August 2009
AND:
Walid Jumblatt in
Closed-Door Meeting with Druze Sheikhs: 'We Have No Choice But to Coexist with
the Shi'ites'. MEMRI June 2009. )
According to reports, Hezballah's
Christian allies have conspired with Hezballah to this end, and have served as
intermediaries enabling Hezballah to purchase real estate in Christian regions
loyal to PM Hariri and the March 14 Alliance. It has been confirmed that
Hezballah has deployed some 3,500 armed militiamen along the Mediterranean coast
and throughout the Christian regions north of Beirut, including through the
cities of Junieh, Tabarja and Batroun. These militants, having taken up
residence in chalets and apartments deep inside Christian areas, simply await
the green light. Consequently, in the event of conflict, Hezballah will be
positioned to besiege the homes of Dr. Samir Geagea (head of the Christian
Lebanese Forces Party) and Amin Gemayel (head of the Kataeb Christian Party) and
subdue the Christian regions by force. As in May 2008, Hezballah is not
expecting any resistance from the clearly partisan Lebanese Army.
Further
to this, Hezbollah is reportedly counting on General Michel Aoun's military aid
in the Christian regions, where Aoun's role allegedly will be to contain and
abort by force any resistance from the Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges
Parties.
This sets up a conflict scenario where Hezballah's Christian
allies (backed by Hezballah of course) will be pitted against Hezballah's
Christian opponents in a military conflagration where ultimately the only real
winner can be Hezballah. A
"covenant with
death" indeed.
See also:
Hariri
case 'could cause civil war'
Politician warns of sectarian violence if
UN-backed tribunal indicts members of Hezbollah movement.
Aljazeera, 24 Sep
2010
Lebanon's
hour
of reckoning
Claude Salhani, Khaleej Times, 25 September
2010
Syria,
Saudi seek to calm tensions in Lebanon
By Rita Daou (AFP), 24
Sept2010
Fear
and Loathing in the Levant
By Zvi Mazel for the Jerusalem Post, 21 Sept
2010.
Hezbollah's
looming Coup Scenario
Elias Youssef Bejjani, International Analyst
Network, 24 Sep 2010
--
Posted By E.N. Kendal. Religious Liberty
Monitoring to
Religious
Liberty Monitoring at 9/25/2010 04:05:00 PM