The Price of Carbon

The minority Labor government in Australia has announced the details of a long-awaited scheme to put a price on carbon.


The minority Labor government in Australia has announced the details of a long-awaited scheme to put a price on carbon.* The basic outline is quite helpfully explained in the animation above, and summarised in greater detail
here. (I speak of a carbon price, because it is not a tax, but an emissions trading scheme with a fixed price for three years. This is not simply a matter of playing with words, as explained here.)

The scheme is modest in ambition, with only a 5% reduction in emissions by 2020,* despite Australians having the highest per capita emissions of all advanced economies and the 10th largest aggregate emissions overall (it would be interesting to see figures on aggregate per capita emissions, but I haven't been able to find them anywhere). However, unlike Kevin Rudd's defeated ETS, this target is not locked in, but can be raised by an independent Climate Commission anytime from 2015 when the carbon price shifts from being directly set by the government to being dependent upon the auction of a set number of emissions permits. Furthermore, the target for 2050 has been raised from 60% to 80%.

The price for tradable permits will start at a set price of $23 per tonne, rising slightly until 2015, when the number of permits will be capped and the price determined by the market. Only the largest five hundred or so companies will be involved, who together emit the vast majority of Australian emissions. Agriculture and petrol are excluded from the scheme. The former because monitoring of agricultural emissions are too complex; the latter because petrol prices are too politically sensitive (despite this
weakening the social, economic and ecological benefits of the scheme). Most households will receive compensation in the form of tax rebates and a raising of the minimum tax threshold will simplify matters for the tax office and for about a million Australians who will no longer need to lodge a return. Only the wealthiest households will be worse off (or rather, only the most carbon-intensive wealthy households).

Many experts see the scheme as representing a decent first step of what was politically possible with a few regrettable compromises. This piece gets into more of the details than I have time or inclination to do at the moment.

A few brief thoughts: with the vast majority of Australian households projected to be better off and the administrative burden falling on about five hundred major companies, the threat of bureauocratic and economic armageddon waved around by Tony Abbott will hopefully be quickly rejected.

Yet with all the focus (by both sides of politics) on what it will mean for the average household budget, most people don't seem to understand that the point of the system is
encourage behavioural change. If you don't want to pay more for your energy bills, then switch to renewable power and implement some basic energy efficiency and conservation measures. If you don't want to pay more for your food, then switch to eating local and organic produce. If you don't want your small business to pay more for its inputs, then consider lower-carbon alternatives for your business model. Whether the price will remain too low to encourage these changes directly through the hip pocket remains to be seen. It may be that the primary benefit of the system in the short term will be to provide some needed stability to the renewables market.

From a political perspective, the
claim that the Greens are not interested in environmental issues ought to be put decisively to rest, given the political costs Gillard has borne over the last few months during negotiations. What these demonstrate is that without the Greens pushing her, she would not be here of her own free will. This was the price the Greens and independents demanded of Gillard after the hung parliament, and it is clear that this is therefore at the heart of what the Greens hoped to achieve with their new-found political influence. Whether they were right to block Rudd's proposed scheme back in 2009 (which was superior in a couple of ways to the current proposal, though clearly inferior in many others) is a more difficult question. Hindsight offers a perspective of the enormous fallout of that earlier decision (change of leadership in both parties, an early election, a protracted chance for the opposition to pursue large swings in popular support for a carbon price), little of which was obvious at the time.

The Greens' shift from principled opposition to pragmatic support of a least worst viable option represents a difficult yet crucial debate. The proposed scheme may represent
the best that was actually available, that is, politically palatable, under current conditions (and so requiring plenty of sweeteners for some of the worst polluters), yet it is important to admit and repeat that it falls far short of what is necessary to avoid some very bad outcomes. Under such circumstances, is a small step better than nothing? Does this represent the strategic establishment of a system that can be scaled up as the political will builds over time? Or can much ado about very little ultimately prove a distraction from or substitute for more radical change, locking in assumptions about the viability of the status quo without addressing the root causes of the problem in our consumerist idolatry and myopic pursuit of further economic growth?

*From a 2000 baseline, which Australia continues to use, despite a global agreement to use 1990 as the benchmark. Therefore, Australian targets cannot be directly compared to those of most other countries. The later baseline makes them less ambitious than a similar figure from a 1990 baseline.


Reproduced with permission from http://nothing-new-under-the-sun.blogspot.com/2011/07/price-of-carbon.html

By Byron Smith
(July 2011)


Readers Respond

  • Charles Sherlock says:

    Thanks for an understandable, well-gauged piece, which should be widely circulated. Any particular theological insights, however, into the whys of this approach to reducing emissions (which I assume is a well-grounded biblical response to our corporate sin)? (12 Jul 11)

  • Harry Cotter says:

    Probably the most balanced, clear and concise accounts of the bill that I have seen.
    Great for giving to people who just don't get it.
    (12 Jul 11)

  • Byron Smith says:

    Thanks for posting this and thanks Charles and Harry for your kind words.

    To be clear (there has been a little discussion of this), the starting price is AUD$23/tonne CO2-e (carbon dioxide equivalent, since three other greenhouse gases are also included: methane, nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons) in 2012, rising by 2.5% in 2013 and another 2.5% in 2014, then switching to a market in 2015.

    The full plan can be downloaded here.

    I think this quote from the Australia Institute summarises what I'm trying to say:
    "The good news is that the modest carbon price announced yesterday will neither impoverish Australians nor bankrupt our economy. The bad news is that the modest carbon price announced yesterday won’t save the planet either."
    (As long as "won't save the planet" is understood as shorthand for "won't come close to fulfilling Australia's just share of emissions reductions required to offer a reasonable chance of leaving a livable climate for the world's inhabitants in the long term".)
    (13 Jul 11)

  • Jim says:

    I don't believe that the Gillard Gov. has got it right and that we will ultimately pay big time for her push in this direction. I am not convinced that we can destroy our world or ever will as God is in control. not Julia. (13 Jul 11)

  • Byron Smith says:

    I am not convinced that we can destroy our world or ever will as God is in control.
    Perhaps, perhaps not. We can sure do plenty of damage to it and to ourselves as history demonstrates time and time again. God doesn't usually prevent suicide, either individually or collectively.
    (13 Jul 11)

  • Chris Dalton says:

    What is the role of the church and individual Christians in this debate, that will be with us at least until the next election?

    Before reaching any conclusions about the merits or otherwise of a carbon tax, perhaps we need to think through some basic questions:

    1. Does the church, and do individual Christians, have a role to play in 'the public square' by contributing to the debate? That is a whole theological debate in its own right. Some will conclude no, others yes. These comments are directed at those who conclude yes.

    2. If yes, then should the church take a definitive position, or focus on helping individual Christians reach their own conclusions? These comments are directed at first assisting individuals make informed, theologically based decisions on this issue; advocating a single Christian position might follow - but informed dialogue that reflects different conclusions can be as helpful in the public square as the preparation of a single 'theologically correct' position (if that is possible on this issue).

    3. Do we think carbon pollution is contributing to climate change? Some will think no, others yes and the rest maybe. These comments assume, as a minimum, that carbon pollution may be contributing to climate change.

    4. Some may reach conclusions intuitively. These comments are for those who wish to think through the issue in a reasoned way.

    5. Can we as Christians take the risk that carbon pollution is NOT contributing to climate change? This is where we need to make an informed judgement, and the very confusing simplistic public debate is little help here.

    6. For instance, is it primarily about job losses, an increase in the cost of living, not trusting the politicians, an unpopular Government, political opportunism, big business self-interest, broken electoral promises, a future for our children, protecting the environment, a choice between ALP/Green and Coalition schemes, harming our international competitiveness, or ... ? How do we balance all these competing factors in reaching a conclusion?

    We have until the next election to educate ourselves. Let's make the most of this opportunity to stimulate an informed debate rather than relying on a superficial media presentation that seeks to polarise views at a very early stage (we all know that once you make up your mind on an issue, you're very unlikely to change it later!).

    Some theological/biblical perspectives to guide thinking on this issue:

    A. What does a call to sacrificial living mean (eg Mat 16:24; deny oneself and take up one's cross to follow Jesus) in this context? Should an increase in living costs influence us? Can we advocate a response that causes increased living costs for others, even if we are prepared to accept increased costs for ourselves? If we do, how might we support those adversely affected?

    B. Do we need to repent of our own consumer behaviour (a life style where we, as Australians, are amongst the highest per capita emitters of carbon)? Are we loving our global neighbours (Luke 16:19-31; Lazarus and Rich Man) by maintaining our high (consumer- and carbon-based) standard of living? It shouldn't need the imposition of a carbon tax to achieve this change!

    C. What is the just course of action here? Reference Micah 6:8. Are we loving the earth as our neighbour? Luke 10:27. Then reflect on the parable of the Good Samaritan, casting the earth as the person robbed and left for dead.

    D. Sallie McFague (Life Abundant, pp 122, 123) talks of three guiding rules with regard to the earth: (i) take only your share; (ii) clean up after yourselves; and (iii) keep the house in good repair for future occupants. This is developed further in her latest book - A new climate for theology - where she states "we have failed to see the real root of our behavioural troubles in an economic model that actually reflects distorted religious views of the person". "At its heart", she maintains, "global warming occurs because we lack an appropriate understanding of ourselves as inextricably bound to the planet and its systems".

    5. Romans 12:2: “Don’t become so well-adjusted to your culture that you fit into it without even thinking. Instead, fix your attention on God. You’ll be changed from the inside out” (The Message).
    (13 Jul 11)

  • Robert Coles says:

    I pose a question. The carbon tax will cause electricity to rise by 10%. If consumers can reduce their power use by 10%, will the electrical retailers then increase the price a further 10% to replace their loss of revenue? Such action would be reprehensible. Do you agree and is it a likely outcome? (13 Jul 11)

  • Mark Edmund says:

    Byron Smith said,
    "The scheme is modest in ambition, with only a 5% reduction in emissions by 2020,* despite Australians having the highest per capita emissions of all advanced economies and the 10th largest aggregate emissions overall “
    Byron, I find it a bit frustrating that Australia is being called one of the "the highest per capita emitters in the world"
    I cannot verify the accuracy of these wiki figures but Oz comes in at no.16 in the world and emits 1.32% of global CO2:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions

    Oz also has about 22 million people concentrated mainly in cities and an economy highly skewed to the mining industry. I have not checked but am confident the OZ mining$ per capita figures will also be skewed.... 1.32% is nothing globally...

    On the other hand the USA and China combined emit 41% of world CO2 (according to wiki). Their present annual growth in CO2 production is projected to be 100's of tonnes more than Australia's 1.32% annual figure!!!

    Unfortunately, the facts I have quoted above will rarely make the mainstream press as there is a strong "climate change" fear and propaganda coming from the highest level of global money power. Also add local political sales/marketing and financial players who are salivating at the prospect of growing a global ETS by $$$billions each year. Globally governments will force businesses to buy CO2 credits and then pass the costs on to consumers (after the UN takes their cut).
    The "high per capita emissions" label for Australia may be true but it’s also a deliberately? DISHONEST misrepresentation of the facts - in my opinion...
    (14 Jul 11)

  • Chris Dalton says:

    Robert

    I wish I knew the answer to your question!

    My Economist friends tell me there is a complex quantitative relationship between cost of production, profit, price, elasticity of supply and demand, the relationship between the wholesale supply and retail of services, etc, such that an intuitively reasoned outcome such as that which you outline might not occur in reality.

    For instance, with regard to electricity supply, power companies have to dimension their networks to cater for peak demand, that might only occur a few times a year; but the cost of this dimensioning could be so extraordinarily high as to exceed the revenue earned.

    In other words (even for the most ardent self-interested capitalist!), profit maximisation might occur at lower demand levels! On purely commercial grounds they may not want to dimension their networks to meet peak demand, but regulation of the supply industry might force them to do so.

    Put another way, if peak demand levels do reduce this might mean power companies can defer decisions to embark on capital-intensive, low profitability new power generation exercises such as building new dams. Of, course, this is just one scenario. Another related question is whether the supply industry would pass on to the retail industry any savings/increased profitability arising from reduced demand.

    In addition, in our consumer society demand for power increases every year, so even if there is a reduction in demand arising from price increases, over time demand will still increase.

    Having said all that, I'm not sure that the potential for a reprehensible response by people in the electricity retailing business provides a compelling case for not imposing a carbon tax.People will exploit the current tax system to their own advantage as much as any future tax system.

    I'm not sure I have adequately answered your question, which nicely highlights the importance of thinking through this whole issue in more detail - calling on economic, ethical, spiritual, behavioural, etc factors to be taken into account.
    (14 Jul 11)

  • Mark Edmund says:

    Byron Smith said:
    "I am not convinced that we can destroy our world or ever will as God is in control. Perhaps, perhaps not. We can sure do plenty of damage to it and to ourselves as history demonstrates time and time again. God doesn't usually prevent suicide, either individually or collectively". (13 Jul 11)

    Byron,
    But surely you would also look to the prophetic writings to see that GOD is still sovereign in HIS world?

    Global cooling was feared in the 70's (Google “global cooling 1974”), ozone hole feared in the 90's, global warming followed by climate change followed by “CO2 as pollution" today. These fear based promotions garner a "political action/ reaction" and DEMAND “global cooperation" to "solve" what’s happening to GOD’S creation. Do you think a "consensus" of unbelieving men – the world leaders/ scientists / money powers – will have the collective wisdom - apart from Christ - to “solve” this? Is the IPCC capable or the UN? Led by these moneyed globalists, unbelieving humans increasingly reject the Lord as creator and controller of HIS universe and they deny HIS WORD by their “scientific consensus”. Surely human PRIDE is at stake here?

    What does the Spirit of TRUTH say through the prophets about what will happen to the Lord’s creation? AND what is the believer’s and unbeliever's response to what the Lord of creation says WILL happen. It is inescapable...

    Hebrews 1
    “You, LORD, in the beginning laid the foundation of the earth,
    And the heavens are the work of Your hands.
    11 They will perish, but You remain;
    And THEY WILL ALL GROW OLD like a garment;
    12 Like a cloak YOU WILL FOLD THEM UP,
    And they will be changed.
    But You are the same,
    And Your years will not fail.”

    Isaiah 13,
    11 “ I will punish the world for its evil,
    And the wicked for their iniquity;
    I will halt the arrogance of the proud,
    And will lay low the haughtiness of the terrible.
    12 I will make a mortal more rare than fine gold,
    A man more than the golden wedge of Ophir.
    13 Therefore I will shake the heavens,
    And the earth will move out of her place,
    In the wrath of the LORD of hosts
    And in the day of His fierce anger.

    see Isaiah 51:6, Isaiah 34:4; compare Psalm 102:26; Hebrews 1:11-12; 2 Peter 3:10-12) and even Revelation 8...
    (15 Jul 11)

  • Philip MacKinnon says:

    This article is clearly biased, (for example: "the threat of beaurocratic (sic) and economic armageddon waved around by Tony Abbott will hopefully be quickly rejected") and is entirely consistent with the strong advocacy of Ethos for anthropogenic climate change.

    This question I ask is how is this position specifically and evangelical position. Must you be an advocate for climate change to be an evangelical?

    The answer to this question is obvious, of course not. You can be evangelical AND be skeptical about the causes of variations in climate.

    So Ethos should not be calling itself an evangelical organisation and taking one-sided approach to the climate. If it wishes to do so it should be calling itself an evangelical environmental organisation and including this in its mission statement. What you are doing now is disingenuous.

    My concerns about the Greens are not that they don't care about the environment, but that they hate humanity. Indeed I am deeply concerned where environmental movement will be taking us. That would be a much more important for an evangelical organisation to discuss. And far more dangerous too!
    (15 Jul 11)

  • Mick Pope says:

    Philip raises a good point about the relationship between the Evangel and issues like climate change. As the coordinator of Ethos Environment I thought I should address this concern.

    It should firstly be clear I think that Evangelicals should be at the forefront of creation care, regardless of the issue. The bible is far greener than the Greens can ever be precisely because we don't 'hate humanity' but should have a proper biblical anthropology. However, one of the problems with some strands of Evangelicalism at various points of history is that it hasn't taken biblical anthropology seriously enough - because we are incarnated and will be incarnated in a resurrected state - matter matters, including matter that isn't human.

    Genesis 1 makes it clear that the Earth is the divine temple and that humans are the idols/images (interesting the Greek word for image in the LXX is icon) in that temple, representing God to the rest of creation - so much for any negative views towards the dominion mandate, since it is in God's image.

    Psalm 104 is oft neglected and makes a couple of things clear. Firstly, God cares for creatures that (at the time) lay outside of the human economy, indeed like lions potentially harmful to the human economy because he took delight in them for their own sake. It is a Psalm in praise of God's own creative wisdom. Notice too how the Psalmist places human economic activity alongside that of his care of the rest of creation. It is a small step to see that if God cares for and tends the wild places, we have no right to interfere with that, and as we carry out dominion in his name we should be also caring for wilderness, not to our own detriment but not to its neglect either.

    The third important passage is Romans 8:19-25, which shows how intimately our future and that of the non-human creation are tied together. Creation groans for its own liberation as it has suffered under human misrule because of our idolatry. Note a solid biblical critique of materialism and paganism - we can't afford to leave creation care to atheists or pantheistic Greens since it is our calling. Still, when those groups take caring for creation they shame us. Note too that if creation waits for liberation we don't 'save the Earth' but we do act in hope for the future just as when we seek to be more holy we don't save ourselves but live in hope of our final sanctification.

    So caring for creation matters for Evangelicals.

    What about climate change - are we being disingenuous? Well as a meteorologist and a PhD who has followed the debate I'd say the science is pretty sound, and that we at Ethos are following the truth laid down by 150 years of direct observation of temperatures, at least 1000 years of proxy data from various independent sources, the best models of the day that can only reproduce the 20th c. trends with greenhouse gases, and a whole slew of research based on various observations of temp extremes, changes in rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, spreading tropical diseases, etc

    In addressing climate change, it is part of a much larger project to realise Evangelicalism has much to repent of (in my opinion) and has and continues to miss its mission of creation care and opportunities to incarnate the gospel
    (15 Jul 11)

  • Mick Pope says:

    Mark Ed makes some interesting points.

    1. Firstly global cooling is a myth and featured in one newish magazine from memory and was never in peer reviewed literature. It was a time when ice core data was starting to show how variable past climate was. It is worth noting that we are slowly headed to another ice age given changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis - a regular pattern. The current warming actually shows we are going against the trend - point towards human activity.

    2. The ozone hole is still and issue, especially over South America in the spring as the polar night vortex breaks up and ozone poor air moves over them. In fact, the ozone hole is an illustration of how we should be acting in the case of global warming. The problem is harder of course.

    3. While it is no doubt true that many in the IPCC are unbelievers, so are most of the people who fly the planes you travel in, produce the drugs you use when sick, etc. Romans 1 tells us there is a noetic effect of the fall, people willfully ignore God. Yet consider Proverbs - there are proverbs from non-Jews. There is a biblical recognition that wisdom extends beyond the walls of the church. Indeed, if this is such a concern, all the more reason for Christians to become actively and positively involved in solving the problem. But here's the thing - former head of the IPCC Sir John Haughton is an Evangelical!

    4. Yes God is in control - but this doesn't justify our sin! Climate change is the result of greed, profligacy and idolatry - all sins. Energy companies employ ad agencies who promoted cigarettes and denied it cause health issues to deny climate science - false witness is also a sin.

    And consider Rm 8 - God has given up creation to frustration under human misrule, yet one day will liberate it. How can we not then in our shared hope with creation fail to act, not to save the Earth from climate change since only God can do that, but to act as his faithful images to fulfill our mandate from Gen 1 and 2:15?

    Saying God is in control is never an excuse not to act as we should. The science is compelling, our guilt is culpable and the opportunities to speak and live the truth of the gospel of a God who is coming to renew all things are there.

    Dr Mick Pope, Meteorologist, Coordinator Ethos Environment
    (15 Jul 11)

  • Byron Smith says:

    @Chris Dalton - That is a very helpful contribution. Thank you. I entirely agree that as Christians we need to reflect theologically upon our relationship to the earth. I found this talk from well-known NT scholar and theologian Richard Bauckham very helpful. He's recently written a new book addressing these matters that I also recommend. I plan on putting up a blog post about this sometime soon.

    @Robert Coles - I agree that it would be reprehensible for electricity companies to do that, and note that the government's plan claims to have penalties for price gouging of up to $1 million. I haven't looked into the details of this.

    @Mark Ed - I cannot verify the accuracy of these wiki figures but Oz comes in at no.16 in the world and emits 1.32% of global CO2
    Those figures are basically accurate, though they are not per capita. It is true that in aggregate terms, China and the US are the major players, covering about 40% of total current emissions between them. But mitigation efforts are required pretty much across the board (excepting those whose emissions are less than 1 tonne CO2 per capita per annum. Australia is close to 20 tonnes per capita per annum).

    Focussing only on aggregate numbers can be quite misleading. It could be a little like comparing the total net worth of Vaucluse to the total net worth of Mexico City in order to say "Vaucluse is not wealthy". Blaming China when the average Australian emits about four times as much as the average Chinese person is, in my opinion, intellectually and ethically dishonest. Australia is a rich and prosperous country. A significant part of the reason for why we are is that we have a long history of high energy use from fossil fuels. Both per capita and in terms of aggregate emissions, we are big hitters on the world stage. We are also a strong example to many other nations, especially the US and China. The US because they (and Canada) share similar per capita emissions levels and similar ways of life. If we can show that it is possible to reduce emissions while embracing a better way of life, then it will be a powerful example. China is one of our major trading partners and a very significant purchaser of our minerals. They watch what happens here too. Remember that China is already putting more money into renewable energy R&D than America. The developing world as a whole is spending more on renewable R&D than the developed world. They are not waiting for us to move first. I am no advocate of China's ethics or politics, but if they are taking bigger steps than we Australians on this, then shame on us.

    Speaking as a Christian now (rather than as an Australian), why defend ourselves? Why not assume that we are prone to pointing out specks in the eyes of others rather than logs in our own vision? Why not be more than eager to do not just "our fair share" but to go the extra mile? Love compels us to heed our neighbours and care for their needs above our own. Are people in other countries still our neighbours? If our emissions are destroying their livelihood then they are.

    At a policy level, I share your distaste for complex financial systems that enable the rich to get richer at the expense of the poor. I have discussed this previously on my blog. This is where I think Christians ought to be engaging the debate. It is not up to us to overthrow the scientific research because we don't like the policies suggested to address the threat it identifies. Instead, let us offer positive alternatives, better policies, and even more importantly, an alternative way of living that shows that it is possible to be truly human while through discovering in Christ a liberation from the love of money and carbon-intensive consumerism.

    But surely you would also look to the prophetic writings to see that GOD is still sovereign in HIS world?
    I did not deny this. What I denied was that this gives us license to act however we like without fear of consequences. Part of God's sovereign judgement upon humanity consists in handing us over to the consequences of our actions (Romans 1).

    Global cooling was overblown by the media. The vast majority of scientific papers in the 1970s were warning of warming. In response to Dr Pope's otherwise truly excellent contribution, it is worth pointing out that there were a handful of scientific papers that tentatively suggested the possibility of alarming global cooling (generally in the much longer term future). They were a minority and within a few years the evidence was clearer and the debate moved on.

    Ozone depletion was and is a very serious issue, which had the capacity to cause huge damage to Australia (more than almost anywhere else, given our southerly location and (on average) melanin-poor skin). The fact is that the governments of the world quickly realised in the 1980s the scale of the threat and acted quickly and decisively to address it. The Montreal Protocol is widely hailed as the most successful piece of international environmental legislation ever put together. Even so, it will take decades before the damage caused between 1930 and the 1980s is repaired. The Antarctic ozone hole continues to affect weather conditions in the Antarctic today.

    Do you think a "consensus" of unbelieving men – the world leaders/ scientists / money powers – will have the collective wisdom - apart from Christ - to “solve” this?
    If you had a heart attack and were brought before an unbelieving surgeon with a surgery team who denied or were ignorant of Christ, would you refuse their help as they lack Christ's wisdom? The situations are not entirely analogous of course. Open heart surgery is, comparatively speaking, a piece of cake. But the point is that God is not stingy with his good blessings. There are plenty of unbelievers who have received some glimpse of divine wisdom, and who are able to use their God-given brain to reach important conclusions and implement plans that are not entirely wicked. Is Christ's wisdom expressed in the church therefore unnecessary? By no means! This is precisely why Christians need to get involved in these debates and point out the injustices associated with many of the current proposed responses. Christians in the UK were at the forefront of getting the UK government to increase its carbon targets to the most ambitious in the world. Christians are at the forefront of relief efforts in Africa where the effects of climate change are mixing with a long history of violence, oppression, colonial abuses, tribal tensions and so on to produce conflict and starvation. Christians need to show the way in living lives that are not captive to the love of money and which do not conform to the pattern of the world.

    I am very happy to talk further about God's promises for creation, and have spent a good deal of time on my blog discussing this matter (a summary of my position can be found here, but since I've already said plenty, I'll pause there.

    Philip: the strong advocacy of Ethos for anthropogenic climate change
    Isn't that against ACC? The only ones who are for ACC are some oil company spin doctors and their political allies who like to talk about CO2 as "plant food" and ignore the disruptions climate change is bringing to plant's other needs (water and temperature being two very important ones).
    (Sorry for the typo, BTW. Now fixed on my post.)

    Must you be an advocate for climate change to be an evangelical?
    Is it possible to be an evangelical and be sceptical of the link between HIV and AIDS or between smoking and lung cancer? Yes, in each case it is possible, but the more one learns about each of these situations, the more a presumption of care for those who are most vulnerable starts to give weight to taking the mainstream science seriously. Does Ethos need to include articles questioning the medical science when it discusses reform of tobacco advertising laws? I think Dr Pope answers this point very nicely.

    My concerns about the Greens are not that they don't care about the environment, but that they hate humanity.
    Then ignore the Greens and work on changing the policies of your chosen political party. There is no reason that the Greens need be the only party with ambitious climate policies. The current UK PM ran for office pledging to lead the "greenest government ever". What would it take to hear such an ambition earnestly delivered by a Coalition or ALP leader? If you don't think the Greens are truly green, then out-green them for the sake of the gospel!

    I am deeply concerned where environmental movement will be taking us. That would be a much more important for an evangelical organisation to discuss.
    I agree. I discuss this at length on my blog (for example here, here, here and here). I would be very pleased for you to join the discussion and/or for Ethos to take up this invitation for more articles on this topic.

    @Mick Pope - I could not agree more with your entire post. Thanks for a string of very helpful points.
    (16 Jul 11)

  • Philip MacKinnon says:

    Mick, the essence of your argument seems to be that with your authority as a scientist within the—complex interdisciplinary—field of climate change you assert that the science is settled and therefore from a reasonable reading of the Bible, Christians should support efforts to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
    A brief look at the history of science would help. Prior to the second world war, the case for eugenics was considered compelling amongst leading biological and medical scientists (RA Fisher being a fine example who, by the way, was a practising Anglican) and was a central part of medical education in many western countries. Never mind that Fisher should have been aware of the impossibility of quickly removing undesirable genes from the gene pool. An objective look at their own equations on selection would have shown their science was poor. (Even without disputing the moral desirability of their goal.)
    Now, Mick, you are demanding that I accept your authority as a scientist on climate change. But does your observation that climate change is the result of greed show that you are not being scientifically objective? Are you being blinded by your belief system in the way the eugenicists were blinded by theirs?
    In any case what is greed? How do you judge the line between reasonable consumption and greed? Should you be making this moral judgement on your fellow humans?
    It is making judgements of this sort that leads to the hate that I believe the Greens to be infected with. Like RA Fisher, you might be well meaning, but the net effect of your beliefs and how you act on them could be wrong. And, like the eugenics movement, your beliefs could be taken to a monstrous conclusion.
    I would suggest that Ethos would be a far better organisation if you opened your processes to discuss these issues and took a “creative controversy’ approach rather than asserting authority ex cathedra (a most un-evangelical thing to do).
    (16 Jul 11)

  • Llew Jones says:

    This is not an Evangelical movement. Evangelicals believe that man and his salvation and the ultimate New Heaven and New Earth, not the the present created order is the overriding purpose of God.

    The Environmentalist movement is philosophically an expression of Paganism and those here who appropriate the use of the word Evangelical to promote Paganism (or perhaps ALP/Green sympathies) are fraudulent.

    If you were serious you would not insult the intelligence of those Evangelicals who come from science or engineering backgrounds by failing to discuss the serious flaws in the alarmist AGW position. Highly credentialed Climate Scientists like Roy Spencer and John Christy, who in fact come from Evangelical backgrounds, reject the alarmist position that you espouse not only on the science but on its rejection of cheap fossil fuel energy which is, they claim, the best way will help lift impoverished nations out of poverty so they can enjoy a better life style. That is where one would expect Evangelical sympathies to lie rather than in Pagan activism.

    So basically the issue then is a better lifestyle for the poor or the promotion of Paganism via a highly likely flawed climate Science promoted by the UN's highly politicised IPCC.
    (17 Jul 11)

  • Mick Pope says:

    Philip.

    is this turning personal? I wasn't flaunting my authority per se - I teach a course on this, keep tabs on the literature but am not a climate scientist. However, it is true to say that the majority (the vast majority) of climate scientists affirm that the planet is warming, that humans have made the major contribution to this and that the future projections do not bode well for the future.

    Your comparison with eugenics is disingenuous. If you are identifying the tentative nature of science and its propensity to change over time, all well and good. I once went to a talk where the output of a climate model was compared to one 20 years before. The picture had not improved even though the physical sophistication of the model had.

    Science is not ex cathedra, neither were my statements. Go read the IPCC report and then get back to me.
    (17 Jul 11)

  • David Jones says:

    I am an Evangelical who recently came across your web site. I was horrified to read your article "The price of Carbon" and some of the readers comments.

    I agree with Ian Plimer that, climate change politics is religious fundamentalism masquerading as science. Its triumph is computer models unrelated to observations in nature.

    Clearly, there has been no critical due diligence of the science of climate change, dogma dominates, sceptics are pilloried and 17th Century thinking promotes prophets of doom, guilt and penance.
    (18 Jul 11)

  • Ian Packer (ETHOS) says:

    More general comments questioning the science of climate change (leading to an interminable discussion not directly discussing the article) are directed to the ETHOS environment blog (http://ethos-environment.blogspot.com) or sites like http://www.skepticalscience.com.

    We also recommend Byron Smith's blog at http://nothing-new-under-the-sun.blogspot.com.
    (18 Jul 11)

  • Byron Smith says:

    Llew - It is good to meet you. I hope that we can find ground on which we can together delight in the goodness of God to us all in Christ.

    However, since you've already accused me (and Mick and millions of confessing Christians) of being fraudulent, pagan and non-evangelical, it is difficult to see how this conversation can move forward constructively. If you are sincere in believing that the goal or effect of this post is deceitful, then can you suggest how we might find the kind of ground that I expressed a hope for above?

    I note in passing that there are more climate scientists from an evangelical background who accept the mainstream scientific understand than climate scientists from an evangelical background who deny it.

    I also note that there are many reputable Christian organisations (including many evangelical organisations) which take climate change very seriously as a major threat (or threat multiplier) to the world's poorest.

    It is also worth noting that no one is suggesting that the developing of the world's poorest out of their grinding poverty is to be prevented by actions to mitigate climate change. Quite the opposite. International discussions to date have proceeded on the basis of compensation and technical assistance being given by the richer countries to poorer countries on the basis of shared but differentiated responsibilities. A typical Somali farmer has a carbon footprint that is less than a hundredth (closer to a two hundredth) of that of a typical Australian. The leading model of climate mitigation is known as contraction and convergence and involves allowing a more than tenfold growth in the carbon footprint of the Somali farmer, while cutting the Australian's footprint by more than 90% in order to head towards a situation in which the possibility of emitting carbon is shared equally by the world's population.

    Christians have been at the forefront of arguing for the responsibilities of those countries who have benefitted the most from carbon pollution towards those who are the poorest and (generally most vulnerable to climate change).

    I hope that we can find common objects of love as seek to glorify Christ in all things.

    Philip - I notice that Mick did not introduce the phrase "the science is settled". What he said was "the science is sound". To my ear, these have a significant difference in connotation. Mick did not simply make an argument from authority. He referred to the multiple lines of independent evidence that support the mainstream scientific understanding of this topic that spans a very wide range of scientific disciplines.

    "In any case what is greed? How do you judge the line between reasonable consumption and greed? Should you be making this moral judgement on your fellow humans? "
    And what is truth? said Pilate.
    If we are not able to make (fallible) moral judgements about our own behaviour and that of our culture, then have we given up any attempt at walking in the light? What we do with these evaluations is, of course, very important. They can be used as a tool to beat people over the head, or they can become part of a invitation to repentance and to walking in humility and justice before our God. A culture that has many times the material wealth of any previous society, in which the pursuit of profit/growth is at the core of its political and economic judgements, in which the gap between rich and poor continues to widen and where current levels of consumption require something like one and a half earths to sustain, is a culture that has a problem with consumption. How we articulate the precise nature of this problem may differ, but I don't think the evaluation itself is particularly problematic from the perspective of theological ethics.
    (19 Jul 11)

  • Byron Smith says:

    @David Jones - I assume you were horrified by me. Can you explain why?

    If Ian Plimer is your primary source on this topic, I suggest you might be interested to read this 64-page critique of his quite misleading book (it one of many such critiques from scientists - journalists have also found him evasive), which identifies systematic problems with his argument and scores of instances in which he mis-quotes, misrepresents, misreads and asserts without evidence.

    If you were mere making a passing reference to Plimer as a convenient shorthand for opinions held for other reasons, can you supply your sources for the claims that you make?

    Perhaps you may find that your horror concerning your brothers and sisters in Christ on this topic was misplaced.
    (19 Jul 11)

  • Byron Smith says:

    PS One more thought on Carter. I just came across this post, which looks at a lecture he's been giving recently and which gives a good example of some of the ways Carter uses careful cherry-picking in his stats. (BTW, the post is on a site run by an evangelical Christian from Queensland and is one of the most read and admired popular-level climate blogs in the world, done as a labour of love (the author receives no funding other than reader donations). I encourage everyone to check it out.) (20 Jul 11)

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